The stock market has rebounded from it’s fourth quarter 2018 swan dive, that some have called a “correction.” The question is, is that rebound a recovery of the market, and an easy put-back and score for the Bulls? Or is that rebound a bounce off the rim, and a take-away by the Grizzlies (bears) who are taking the ball in the other direction?
My 2019 projection on January 1st, predicted a rebound for the stock market, which I called an opportunity to sell. In that blog, I also stated that you have to consider your time horizon when making investment decisions, and that you should consult your broker or investment advisor when considering those options. But my personal belief is that 2019 will be a challenging year for the market, and there is more to the lowered profit forecast and economic slowdown referenced in recent corporate earnings reports.
I still believe the overall risks outweigh the potential profits in the stock market at this time. I also believe, as I have stated in prior blogs, that a recession is in our near future (by the end of 2019), and recessions are always bad for the stock market. In addition, the trade war with China and other countries will eventually seep its way into the economy in the form of higher prices, and with the unemployment rate at 50-year lows, wage inflation will also have an effect on the economy. It all stacks up to a challenging environment for businesses across the country, and globally.